Will It Last?

⚠ Educational only — not financial, tax or legal advice. Results are estimates, not guarantees, and may contain errors; we accept no responsibility for them. Read the full disclaimer.

4% rule calculator

See what you can spend from your savings at the 4% rule or any other withdrawal rate, the chance it lasts across 1,000 simulated markets, and how much you need to retire. Free, no sign-up, and nothing you enter leaves your browser.

What is the 4% rule?

The 4% rule is a rule of thumb for retirement spending: in your first year of retirement, withdraw 4% of your savings. Each year after, withdraw the same dollar amount raised for inflation, no matter what markets do. In research on historical US stock and bond returns (William Bengen in 1994, and the “Trinity study” in 1998), that spending lasted at least 30 years in nearly every historical period.

Turned around, it says how much you need: about 25 times the yearly spending your savings must cover. Spending $40,000 a year from savings means about $1,000,000.

Is the 4% rule still safe?

It’s a starting point, not a guarantee. The calculator above tests your withdrawal rate in 1,000 simulated markets with random returns and inflation, so you can see how often it lasts rather than relying on history alone. A few things change the answer:

  • Length of retirement. The rule was built for 30 years. Retiring at 50, or planning to 100, needs a lower rate.
  • Your mix. Too little in stocks can mean returns don’t keep up with inflation; all stocks means bigger swings.
  • The first years. A bad market early in retirement does the most damage, because you’re selling while prices are down (sequence-of-returns risk).
  • Fees and taxes. The rule ignores them. A 1% yearly fee or taxes on withdrawals leave less to spend.
  • Flexibility. If you can trim spending after bad years, you can usually start higher. Fixed spending needs a lower rate.

Frequently asked questions

What withdrawal rate should I use?

Many planners use 3–4% for a 30-year retirement with fixed spending, and lower for longer retirements. The table above shows how the chance changes with the rate and the number of years, so you can pick the cushion you’re comfortable with.

Does the 4% include Social Security?

No. The rule covers what you withdraw from savings. Subtract Social Security, pensions and other income from your spending first, and use the rest. The Social Security claiming age calculator and the free retirement planner help with that.

Is the 4% before or after taxes?

Before. Withdrawals from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s are taxed as income, so part of your 4% goes to tax. Roth withdrawals are generally tax-free. The retirement planner estimates taxes year by year.

What if markets do badly right after I retire?

That’s the biggest risk to any withdrawal rate. Common protections: start a little below 4%, keep a year or two of spending in cash, be willing to skip inflation raises after a bad year, or delay Social Security so a larger guaranteed check covers more of your basics.

How is this different from “How long will my money last?”

Both use the same 1,000 simulated markets. This page starts from a withdrawal rate and shows the full table of rates and years; How long will my money last? starts from your spending and shows the age your money could run out.

Sources

Return assumptions are illustrative long-run averages for stocks and bonds, not predictions. Last reviewed November 1, 2026.