Will It Last?

⚠ Educational only — not financial, tax or legal advice. Results are estimates, not guarantees, and may contain errors; we accept no responsibility for them. Read the full disclaimer.

How long will my money last?

Enter your savings and what you plan to spend each year to see how many years your money lasts, the age it could run out, the chance it lasts across 1,000 simulated markets, and how much you could spend for it to last as long as you need. Free, no sign-up, and nothing you enter leaves your browser.

What decides how long your money lasts

  • Your withdrawal rate: the first year’s spending as a share of your savings. It matters more than anything else.
  • Investment returns, which depend on your mix of stocks and bonds.
  • Inflation, which raises what you spend each year.
  • The order of returns. Losses early in retirement hurt far more than the same losses later, because you’re selling investments while prices are down. This is called sequence-of-returns risk.
  • How long you live. Plan for longer than average: many people live into their 90s.
  • Taxes and fees, which this calculator leaves out.

The 4% rule

The 4% rule is a rule of thumb from 1990s research on historical US markets: spend 4% of your savings in the first year, raise that amount with inflation each year after, and the money lasted at least 30 years in most historical periods. It’s a starting point, not a guarantee. It assumes a 30-year retirement, a mix of stocks and bonds, and no fees or taxes, and future markets may be worse than the past.

The calculator above shows the chance your own spending lasts in 1,000 simulated markets, so you can see how much cushion your plan has instead of relying on one number.

Ways to make your money last longer

  • Spend a little less, especially in the first years. Small cuts early make a big difference.
  • Be flexible. Trimming spending after a bad market year, and restoring it after good ones, raises the chance your money lasts.
  • Delay Social Security. Each year you wait past full retirement age, up to 70, raises your benefit for life.
  • Cover basics with guaranteed income, such as Social Security, a pension or an annuity, so savings only pay for the rest.
  • Work a little longer or part time: more saving, fewer years to fund.
  • Keep fees low and withdraw tax-smart. Both leave more invested.

Frequently asked questions

How much do I need to retire?

A quick estimate: take the yearly spending your savings must cover (after Social Security and any pension) and divide by a withdrawal rate. For example, $40,000 ÷ 4% = $1,000,000. Use the calculator to see how likely that amount is to last for your age and mix.

Does this include Social Security?

No. Enter only the spending your savings must cover. Get your own Social Security estimate from my Social Security (linked below), or use the free retirement planner, which includes it.

What about taxes?

Withdrawals from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s are taxed as income, so you may need to withdraw more than you spend. Roth withdrawals are generally tax-free. The RMD calculator and the retirement planner estimate taxes; this page doesn’t.

What’s a good chance of success?

There’s no single right number. A higher chance means more cushion against bad markets but less spending today; a lower one means spending more now and being ready to cut back if markets disappoint. Many people pair a reasonable chance with a willingness to adjust.

What doesn’t this calculator include?

Taxes, investment fees, Social Security, pensions, one-time expenses, healthcare costs and spending that changes over time. The free retirement planner covers all of these.

Sources

Return assumptions are illustrative long-run averages for stocks and bonds, not predictions. Last reviewed November 1, 2026.